Transitions to polysubstance use: Prospective cohort study of adolescents in Australia.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Adolescent polysubstance use has been associated with adverse social and health outcomes. Our aim was to measure rates and transitions to polysubstance use during adolescence and identify factors associated with initiation and discontinuation of polysubstance use. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. Multistate Markov modelling was used to estimate rates and identify correlates of transitions between substance use states. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Adolescent-parent dyads (n = 1927; adolescents in grade 7, age ≈13 years) were recruited from Australian schools during 2010/11 (Wave 1). Adolescents were surveyed annually until 2016/17 (n = 1503; age ≈19 years; Wave 7) and parents were surveyed annually until 2014/15 (Wave 5). MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) use outcomes were collected at Waves 3-7. Potential confounders were collected at Waves 1-6 and consisted of sex, anxiety and depression symptoms and externalizing problems, parental monitoring, family conflict and cohesion, parental substance use and peer substance use. Covariates were age and family socioeconomic status. FINDINGS: Few adolescents engaged in polysubstance use at earlier waves (Wave 3: 5%; Wave 4: 8%), but proportions increased sharply across adolescence (Waves 5-7: 17%, 24%, 36%). Rates of transitioning to polysubstance use increased with age, with few (<9%) adolescents transitioning out. More externalizing problems (odds ratio [OR] = 1.10; 99.6% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-1.14), parental heavy episodic drinking (OR = 1.22; 99.6% CI = 1.07-1.40), parental illicit substance use (OR = 3.56; 99.6% CI = 1.43-8.86), peer alcohol use (OR = 5.68; 99.6% CI = 1.59-20.50) and peer smoking (OR = 4.18; 99.6% CI = 1.95-8.81) were associated with transitioning to polysubstance use. CONCLUSIONS: Polysubstance use in Australia appears to be rare during early adolescence but more common in later adolescence with low rates of transitioning out. Externalizing problems and greater parental and peer substance use are risk factors for adolescent polysubstance use that may be suitable intervention targets.

The role of gifts in building influence with politicians: Thematic analysis of interviews with current and former parliamentarians.

Gifts are a powerful way to acknowledge and strengthen interpersonal relationships. As with any relational space, gifting plays various roles in forming and maintaining relationships in political contexts, but its contribution to relationship-building has attracted little attention. This paper examines how politicians in Aotearoa New Zealand both engage with gifting and how they navigate the perceptions of others. Four current members of parliament (MPs) and six retired MPs participated in semi-structured interviews with questions on common practices and common understandings about political gifting. Their responses indicate their use of four different processes: formal processes are the guidelines provided by the government on gifting, but when these are insufficient, contextual processes regarding perceptions of the media, constituents or colleagues are used, or, alternatively, MPs rely on personal values or view gifting in terms of transactional processes with both parties receiving benefits. The paper explores perceptions and complexities of a sequence of gifts during events (event gifting). The authors recommend an improved awareness and understanding of the contribution of gifting practices to political relationship building.

Effects of the Connections program on return-to-custody, mortality and treatment uptake among people with a history of opioid use: Retrospective cohort study in an Australian prison system.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Connections is a voluntary health program that facilitates access to opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and social services for people with opioid use exiting prison. This study aimed to measure the effectiveness of Connections in reducing recidivism and improving health outcomes for people with a history of opioid use on leaving prison. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study with quasi-random allocation to the program. SETTING: Public adult prisons in New South Wales, Australia, 2008-2015. PARTICIPANTS: Adults released from custody with a history of opioid use. Of 5549 eligible releasees, 3973 were allocated to Connections and 1576 to treatment-as-usual. MEASUREMENTS: Outcomes were return-to-custody, all-cause mortality, and OAT participation. FINDINGS: Regression analyses on an intention-to-treat basis, and adjusting for baseline propensity scores, comparing patients allocated to Connections versus treatment-as-usual showed no difference in rates of return-to-custody within 2 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92 -1.12). Patients allocated to the Connections program were more likely to access OAT (odds ratio [OR]: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.39) and had lower mortality within 28 days of release (0.25% vs. 0.66%; HR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.14-1.03). Differences in mortality did not persist beyond 28 days. Subgroup analyses showed that allocation to Connections was associated with higher risk of return-to-custody within 28 days for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) and female releasees. CONCLUSIONS: The Connections program for people with opioid use exiting prison did not reduce the likelihood of return-to-custody but did facilitate opioid agonist treatment participation on release from prison.

Unpacking the differing understandings of "alcohol industry" in public health research.

BACKGROUND: Use of the term 'alcohol industry' plays an important role in discussions of alcohol and public health. In this paper, we examine how the term is currently used and explore the merits of alternative conceptualisations. METHODS: We start by examining current ways of referring to 'alcohol industry' in public health and then explore the potential for organisational theory, political science, and sociology to provide alcohol research with more inclusive and nuanced conceptualizations. RESULTS: We identify, and critique, three conceptualisations based on purely economic understandings of industry: literal, market, and supply-chain understandings. We then examine three alternative conceptualizations based on systemic understandings of industry: organizational, social-network, and common-interest understandings. In examining these alternatives, we also identify the extent to which they open up new ways of approaching the levels at which industry influence is understood to operate in alcohol and public health research and policy. CONCLUSIONS: Each of the six understandings of 'industry' can play a role in research but their utility depends on the question being asked and the breadth and depth of the analysis being undertaken. However, for those intending to engage with a broader disciplinary base, approaches grounded in the systemic understandings of 'industry' are better positioned to study the complex nexus of relationships that contribute to alcohol industry influence.

Changes in mental health and help-seeking among young Australian adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Young people may have elevated risk for poorer mental health during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, yet longitudinal studies documenting this impact are lacking. This study assessed changes in mental health and help-seeking since COVID-19 restrictions in young Australians, including gender differences. METHODS: Data were drawn from a recent subsample (n = 443; 60% female; Mage = 22.0) of a prospective cohort originally recruited in secondary school to complete annual surveys. The subsample completed an additional COVID-19 survey during COVID-19 restrictions (May-June 2020), which was compared to responses from their latest annual survey (August 2019-March 2020). Mixed effect models with time and gender as the primary predictors were conducted for: (i) scores on the Patient Health Questionnaire Depression 9-item (PHQ-9) and Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7-item (GAD-7) modules assessed before and during COVID-19 restrictions, and (ii) self-reported help-seeking from a health professional in February 2020, and the month preceding May-June 2020. RESULTS: Mean symptom scores increased from before to during COVID-19 restrictions on the PHQ-9 (coefficient: 1.29; 95% CI 0.72-1.86) and GAD-7 (0.78; 95% CI 0.26-1.31), but there was no increase in help-seeking over time (odds ratio 0.50; 95% CI 0.19-1.32). There was no evidence of differential changes by gender. CONCLUSIONS: This study found increases in depression and anxiety symptoms but not greater help-seeking among young Australian adults during the first wave of the pandemic. Increasing availability and awareness of accessible treatment options and psychoeducation is critical, as well as further research into risk and protective factors to help target treatment to this vulnerable age group.

Correction: Gilmore et al. Association between Nightlife Goers' Likelihood of an Alcohol Use Disorder and Their Preferred Bar's Closing Time: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study in Perth, Australia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 13040.

In the original publication [...].

Definition matters: assessment of tolerance to the effects of alcohol in a prospective cohort study of emerging adults.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Tolerance to the effects of alcohol is an important element in the diagnosis of alcohol use disorders (AUD); however, there is ongoing debate about its utility in the diagnosis AUD in adolescents and young adults. This study aimed to refine the assessment of tolerance in young adults by testing different definitions of tolerance and their associations with longitudinal AUD outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTINGS: Australia. PARTICIPANTS: A contemporary cohort of emerging adults across Australia (n = 565, mean age = 18.9, range = 18-21 at baseline). MEASUREMENTS: Clinician-administered Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Research Version (SCID-IV-RV) assessed for AUD criteria across five interviews, at 6-month intervals over 2.5 years. Tolerance definitions were operationalized using survey-type response (yes/no), clinician judgement (SCID-IV-RV), different initial drinking quantity and percentage increase thresholds and average heavy consumption metrics. AUD persistence was operationalized by the number of times AUD was present across the 2.5-year study period (n = 491), and new-onset AUD was operationalized as any new incidence of AUD during the follow-up period (n = 461). FINDINGS: The (i) SCID-IV-RV clinician judgement [odds ratio (OR) = 2.50, P = 0.005], (ii) an initial drinking quantity threshold of four to five drinks and 50% minimum increase (OR = 2.48, P = 0.007) and (iii) 50% increase only (OR = 2.40, P = 0.005) were the tolerance definitions more strongly associated with any new onset of AUD throughout the four follow-up time-points than other definitions. However, these definitions were not associated with persistent AUD (Ps > 0.05). Average heavy consumption definitions of tolerance were most strongly associated with persistent AUD (OR = 6.66, P = 0.001; OR = 4.65, P = 0.004) but not associated with new-onset AUD (Ps > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Initial drink and percentage change thresholds appear to improve the efficacy of change-based tolerance as an indicator for new-onset alcohol use disorder diagnosis in self-report surveys of young adults. When predicting persistent alcohol use disorder, average heavy consumption-based indicators appear to be a better way to measure tolerance than self-reported change-based definitions.

Association between Bar Closing Time, Alcohol Use Disorders and Blood Alcohol Concentration: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study of Nightlife-Goers in Perth, Australia.

Introduction and aims: Associations between bar trading hours, a government lever for controlling alcohol availability, nightlife-goer intoxication levels and their likelihood of alcohol use disorder (AUD) have not been explored. We investigated whether: (i) participant AUD was associated with blood alcohol concentration (BAC); and, (ii) any association between AUD and BAC was moderated by participant preferred bar (i.e., venue spent most time at) closing time. Design and methods: A cross-sectional observational study using a sample of nightlife-goers who went out drinking in Perth, Western Australia, on weekends in 2015-16. Participants who reported alcohol use that night and spent most time in a bar (n = 667) completed street intercept surveys including AUDIT-C (n = 459) and provided a breath sample to estimate BAC (n = 651). We used gender-specific multinomial logistic regression models to explore associations between participant AUDIT-C score (1−4, lower risk; 5−7, hazardous; 8−12, active AUD), preferred bar type (standard vs. late closing time based on absence or presence of an extended trading permit) and BAC (male: 0−0.049, 0.05−0.099, ≥0.1 g/100 mL; female: 0−0.049, 0.05−0.079, ≥0.08 g/100 mL). Results: Males with active AUD (RR = 3.31; 95% CI 1.30−8.42; p = 0.01) and females with hazardous/active AUD (RR = 9.75; 95% CI 2.78−34.21; p < 0.001) were both more likely to have high-range BAC than their counterparts typically drinking at lower risk. We also found preferred bar type moderated the association between AUDIT-C score and BAC for some males but no females. Males with active AUD and high-range BAC were less likely to prefer late closing bars than males usually drinking at lower risk and high-range BAC (RR = 0.12; 95% CI 0.02−0.96; p = 0.046). Discussion and conclusions: Our study provides evidence of positive associations between AUD and acute intoxication among nightlife-goers and on the moderating effect of bar closing times among males.

Trajectories of parental and peer supply of alcohol in adolescence and associations with later alcohol consumption and harms: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Supply of alcohol to adolescents is associated with increased alcohol consumption and harms including alcohol use disorder (AUD). We aimed to identify: (1) trajectories of alcohol supply to adolescents; (2) sociodemographic characteristics associated with supply trajectory; (3) patterns of alcohol consumption by supply trajectory; and (4) supply trajectory associations with adverse alcohol outcomes. METHODS: We used Australian longitudinal survey data (N = 1813) to model latent trajectories of parent and peer alcohol supply over five annual follow-ups (Waves 2-6; Mage 13.9-17.8 years). Regression models assessed associations between supply trajectories and Wave 1 (Mage=12.9 years) sociodemographic factors and associations between supply trajectories and Wave 7 (Mage=18.8 years) alcohol outcomes. RESULTS: We identified five alcohol supply classes: (1) minimal supply (n = 739, 40.8%); (2) early parent sips, late peer/parent whole drinks (n = 254, 14.0%); (3) late peer/parent whole drinks (n = 419, 23.1%); (4) early parent sips, mid peer/parent whole drinks (n = 293, 16.2%); (5) early peer/parent whole drinks (n = 108, 6.0%). Compared to minimal supply, the other classes were 2.7-12.9 times as likely to binge drink, 1.6-3.0 times as likely to experience alcohol-related harms, and 2.1-8.6 times as likely to report AUD symptoms at age 19. CONCLUSION: Earlier supply of whole drinks, particularly from peers, was associated with increased risk of early adulthood adverse alcohol outcomes. While minimal supply represented the lowest risk, supplying sips only in early-mid adolescence and delaying supply of whole drinks until late adolescence is likely to be less risky than earlier supply of whole drinks.

"Using information to shape perception": tobacco industry documents study of the evolution of Corporate Affairs in the Miller Brewing Company.

BACKGROUND: The Miller Brewing Company (MBC) was wholly owned by Phillip Morris (PM), between 1970 and 2002. Tobacco industry document studies identify alliances between the alcohol and tobacco industries to counter U.S. policies in the 1980s and 1990s. This investigation sought to study in-depth inter-relationships between MBC and PM, with a particular focus on alcohol policy issues. We used the Truth Tobacco Industry Documents library to trace the evolution of corporate affairs and related alcohol policy orientated functions within and between MBC and PM. RESULTS: MBC was structured and led by PM senior executives from soon after takeover in 1970. Corporate Affairs sought to influence public perceptions of alcohol to align them with business interests. Alcohol education was specifically designed to prevent the adoption of policies inimical to those interests (e.g., raising excise taxes). Strategic consideration of alcohol policy issues was integrated within company-wide thinking, which sought to apply lessons from tobacco to alcohol and vice versa. PM directly led key alcohol industry organisations nationally and globally, which have successfully delayed the adoption and implementation of known effective policy measures in the U.S. and worldwide. CONCLUSIONS: PM has been a key architect of alcohol industry political strategies. This study builds on earlier work on alcohol companies in the tobacco documents, and offers historical data on how tobacco companies have used commercial involvements in other sectors to influence wider public health policy. We are only beginning to appreciate how multi-sectoral companies internally develop political strategies across product categories. Global health and national governmental policy-making needs to be better protected from business interests that fundamentally conflict with public health goals.

Association between Nightlife Goers' Likelihood of an Alcohol Use Disorder and Their Preferred Bar's Closing Time: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study in Perth, Australia.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Associations between longer-term alcohol-related conditions and licensed outlet trading hours are not well understood. We investigated the association between nightlife-goers' likelihood of an alcohol use disorder (AUD) and their preference for bars with special permits to remain open 'late' (i.e., spent more time there compared to any other venue) until 2 a.m. or 3 a.m. (Friday; Saturday) or midnight (Sunday) compared to bars with 'standard' closing times of midnight (Friday; Saturday) or 10 p.m. (Sunday). DESIGN AND METHODS: A cross-sectional observational study was conducted in four major nightlife areas of Perth, Australia, in 2015-2016. We conducted weekend street intercept surveys outside bars between 8 p.m. and 3 a.m. and screened participants who reported alcohol use prior to the survey and spent more time in a bar than any other venue type (n = 667) regarding their past year drinking pattern using AUDIT-C (n = 459). We used gender-specific logistic regression models to estimate associations between AUDIT-C categories (1-4, low risk; 5-7, hazardous; 8-12, active AUD) and preference for bars with different closing times (late vs. standard). RESULTS: A large proportion of participants were hazardous drinkers or had active AUD (83% males; 65% females), and over half preferred a late to a standard closing bar. We found evidence of a positive association between preference for late closing bars and hazardous drinking females (OR = 3.48; 95% CI 1.47-8.23; p = 0.01), but not for females with active AUD, male hazardous drinkers, nor males with active AUD. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Our study adds new evidence on associations between likelihood of AUD among nightlife-goers and trading hours. With increasing international relaxation of trading hours, evidence that late closing bars may be preferred by hazardous drinking females will be of concern to policymakers wanting to curb alcohol-related harms in the community.

The experience of physiological and psychosocial alcohol-related harms across adolescence and its association with alcohol use disorder in early adulthood: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Different forms of alcohol-related harm (e.g., hangovers, fighting) may confer differential risk of clinically relevant alcohol problems. We examine: (i) patterns of transition in experiencing alcohol-related harms across adolescence; (ii) whether factors in early adolescence predict transition patterns; and (iii) whether transition patterns predict later alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms. METHODS: We used a longitudinal Australian cohort (n = 1828) to model latent class transition patterns of alcohol-related harms across three timepoints (Mage  = 13.9, 16.8, 18.8 years). Regression models assessed whether child, peer, and parent factors in early adolescence (Mage  = 12.9) predicted harms transition patterns and whether these patterns predicted AUD symptoms in early adulthood (Mage  = 19.8). RESULTS: Five transition patterns characterized most of the cohort (n ≈ 1609, 88.0%): (i) minimal harms (n ≈ 381, 20.8%); (ii) late physiological harms (n ≈ 702, 38.4%); (iii) early physiological harms (n ≈ 226, 12.4%); (iv) late all harms (n ≈ 131, 7.2%); and (v) gradual all harms (n ≈ 169, 9.2%). With late physiological harms as the reference, females had increased risk of experiencing early physiological harms (relative risk [RR]: 2.15; 99.5% CI: 1.19, 3.90). Late all harms (RR: 1.71; CI: 1.19, 2.47) and gradual all harms (RR: 1.84; CI: 1.37, 2.47) were each associated with increased odds of meeting criteria for AUD, even when patterns of alcohol consumption are considered. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescents display heterogeneous transition patterns across physiological and psychosocial alcohol-related harms. Females are at greater risk of experiencing early physiological harms. Experience of both physiological and psychosocial harms in late adolescence is an important and potentially modifiable precursor to clinically relevant alcohol problems in early adulthood.

DSM-5 and ICD-11 alcohol use disorder criteria in young adult regular drinkers: Lifetime prevalence and age of onset.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) is a significant contributor to global disease burden. AUD has a relatively early onset during young adulthood (Teesson et al., 2010). However, compared to AUD in adults, we have relatively little understanding of AUD in adolescents and emerging adults. METHODS: The RADAR study is a prospective cohort study designed to investigate the emergence of AUD in community-dwelling adolescents and emerging adults across Australia (age range = 18-21 at baseline). At 6 monthly intervals over 2.5 years, participants were interviewed regarding alcohol consumption and alcohol use disorder criteria by clinical psychologists using the SCID-IV-RV. This paper reports the baseline findings of the RADAR cohort. RESULTS: Proportions of lifetime criteria endorsement among regular drinkers varied considerably. Tolerance was the most endorsed criterion (50.3%), followed by Social Problems (10.4%) and Larger/Longer (9.0%). The median age of onset for most individual AUD criteria was 18 years of age. 18.4% of our cohort met DSM-5 AUD diagnosis in their lifetime to date, and 16.8% met ICD-11 dependence. When removing Tolerance from the AUD criteria, DSM-5 AUD lifetime prevalence reduced to 11.0%, and ICD-11 AUD lifetime prevalence fell to 7.1% in our cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Variable rates of criteria endorsement likely reflect both true differences in the experience of AUD criteria and methodological challenges in the assessment of AUD in an emerging adult age group. High rates of tolerance to the effects of alcohol, and relatively low rates of drinking larger/longer than intended are discussed considering methodological challenges in assessing these criteria in young adults.

Gender differences in the supply of alcohol to adolescent daughters and sons.

Background: Parents are the main supplier of alcohol to children but it is not known whether mothers and fathers equally contribute to the supply of alcohol to their female and male children as these children transition to adulthood.Objectives: i) to determine whether the gender of the parent is associated with the gender of the adolescent offspring when alcohol is supplied and ii) whether the gender of the parent supplying is associated with gender differences in adolescent binge drinking and alcohol related harms.Methods: Longitudinal cohort of 1,927 (males = 1052) Australian adolescents (mean age 12.9 years), recruited in 2010/11 from schools in Australia and surveyed annually for six years. We assessed the association between adolescent and parent gender related to subsequent adolescent drinking, binge drinking (>4 standard drinks), and alcohol-related harms.Results: At mean age of 12.9 years about one in ten children report parental supply of alcohol which increases to about four in ten children by 17.8 years. Mothers consistently more often supply their daughters with alcohol than their sons, [Wave 5 OR 1.77 (1.53,2.05)], while mothers less often supply sons than their daughters, [Wave 5 OR 0.82 (0.71,0.95)]. Mothers' supply of alcohol to daughters predicts substantially increased odds of daughters binge drinking, [OR 1.67 (1.10,2.53)] and experiencing alcohol related harms, [OR 1.65 (1.10,2.48)].Conclusion: There is a need to involve both mothers and fathers and to equally target female and male children in programs to reduce the harmful consequences of parental supply of alcohol to their children.

"He who pays the piper calls the tune": Researcher experiences of funder suppression of health behaviour intervention trial findings.

BACKGROUND: Governments commonly fund research with specific applications in mind. Such mechanisms may facilitate 'research translation' but funders may employ strategies that can also undermine the integrity of both science and government. We estimated the prevalence and investigated correlates of funder efforts to suppress health behaviour intervention trial findings. METHODS: Our sampling frame was lead or corresponding authors of papers (published 2007-2017) included in a Cochrane review, reporting findings from trials of interventions to improve nutrition, physical activity, sexual health, smoking, and substance use. Suppression events were based on a previous survey of public health academics. Participants answered questions concerning seven suppression events in their efforts to report the trial, e.g., [I was…] "asked to suppress certain findings as they were viewed as being unfavourable." We also examined the association between information on study funder, geographical location, targeted health behaviour, country democracy rating and age of publication with reported suppression. FINDINGS: We received responses from 104 authors (50%) of 208 eligible trials, from North America (34%), Europe (33%), Oceania (17%), and other countries (16%). Eighteen percent reported at least one of the seven suppression events relating to the trial in question. The most commonly reported suppression event was funder(s) expressing reluctance to publish because they considered the results 'unfavourable' (9% reported). We found no strong associations with the subject of research, funding source, democracy, region, or year of publication. CONCLUSIONS: One in five researchers in this global sample reported being pressured to delay, alter, or not publish the findings of health behaviour intervention trials. Regulation of funder and university practices, establishing study registries, and compulsory disclosure of funding conditions in scientific journals, are needed to protect the integrity of public-good research.

Alcohol use among young Australian adults in May-June 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study.

AIMS: To estimate change in young people's alcohol consumption during COVID-19 restrictions in Australia in early-mid 2020, and test whether those changes were consistent by gender and level of consumption prior to the pandemic. DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal cohort. SETTING: Secondary schools in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Subsample of a cohort (n = 443) recruited in the first year of secondary school in 2010-11. Analysis data included three waves collected in September 2017-July 2018, September 2018-May 2019 and August 2019-January 2020), and in May-June 2020. MEASUREMENTS: The primary predictors were time, gender and level of consumption prior to the pandemic. Outcome variables, analysed by mixed-effects models, included frequency and typical quantity of alcohol consumption, binge drinking, peak consumption, alcohol-related harm and drinking contexts. FINDINGS: Overall consumption (frequency × quantity) during the restrictions declined by 17% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.73, 0.95] compared to February 2020, and there was a 35% decline in the rate of alcohol-related harms in the same period (IRR = 0.66; 95% CI = 0.54, 0.79). Changes in alcohol consumption were largely consistent by gender. CONCLUSIONS: From a survey of secondary school students in Australia, there is evidence for a reduction in overall consumption and related harms during the COVID-19 restrictions.

Costing alcohol-related assault in the night-time economy from a societal perspective: The case of Central Sydney.

INTRODUCTION: There is a concern in many countries about violence from late-night alcohol sales and appropriate regulatory responses. However, economic losses arising from this activity rarely feature in public debate. Credible estimates are lacking because economic evaluations have not taken a 'societal perspective', costing health, policing and criminal justice outcomes. Our aims were to: (i) develop an analytic model capable of informing cost-benefit analysis of policy changes; and (ii) estimate costs of alcohol-related assault (ARA) in a major city. METHODS: We employed decision-analytic cohort models of health and judicial consequences of ARA in Sydney, Australia. We constructed two 6-branch decision-analytic models of patient and offender pathways through the health and judicial systems. We produced overall estimates and analysed their sensitivity to key assumptions. RESULTS: Combining results from a Health model comprising 40 pathways and 137 cost events, and a Justice model comprising 20 pathways and 48 cost events, yielded an overall cost estimate of $85 093 per ARA, of which 64% was health-related, while 36% was justice-related. Estimates were sensitive to values assigned for 'pain, suffering, morbidity and wellbeing', and to costs of incarceration. Health service-related costs accounted for 1.3% of the total. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The costs of ARA are significant and dominated by incidents in which a victim does not necessarily receive acute medical care but suffers loss in quality-of-life, and where a perpetrator is processed through the criminal justice system. Being derived transparently, within a theoretical framework, the estimates are adaptable to inform cost-benefit analyses of policy options in Australia and other countries.

Trajectories of alcohol-induced blackouts in adolescence: early risk factors and alcohol use disorder outcomes in early adulthood.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Experience of alcohol-induced memory blackouts in adolescence may be an important risk factor for later harms. This longitudinal study (i) modelled trajectories of alcohol-related blackouts throughout adolescence, (ii) explored early-adolescent predictors of blackout trajectories and (iii) examined the association between blackout trajectories and alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms. DESIGN: Longitudinal study in which data from six annual surveys of a longitudinal cohort of Australian adolescents were used to model latent class growth trajectories of blackouts, adjusting for alcohol consumption frequency and typical quantity. Regression models were used to determine whether parent, child and peer factors at baseline (mean age = 12.9) predicted profiles of blackout trajectory membership and whether blackout trajectories predicted meeting criteria for AUD in early adulthood (mean age = 19.8). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Australian adolescents (n = 1821; mean age = 13.9-18.8 years). MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol-related blackouts, alcohol consumption frequency, typical consumption quantity and DSM-5 AUD in early adulthood were all self-reported. FINDINGS: We identified a three-class solution: delayed alcohol initiation, rare blackouts (n = 701; 38.5%); early initiation, rare blackouts (n = 869; 47.7%); and early initiation, increasing blackouts (n = 251; 13.8%). Female sex was associated with increased risk of early initiation, increasing blackouts relative to delayed initiation, rare blackouts [relative risk ratio (RRR) = 3.90; 99.5% confidence interval (CI) = 1.96, 7.76] and relative to early initiation, rare blackouts (RRR = 2.89; 99.5% CI = 1.42, 5.87). Early initiation, rare blackouts [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96; 99.5% CI = 1.17, 3.29] and early initiation, increasing blackouts (OR = 4.93; 99.5% CI = 2.32, 10.48) were each associated with increased odds of meeting criteria for AUD in early adulthood relative to delayed initiation, rare blackouts. Early initiation, increasing blackouts was associated with increased odds of meeting criteria for AUD in early adulthood relative to early initiation, rare blackouts (OR = 2.51; 99.5% CI = 1.18, 5.38). CONCLUSIONS: Females in Australia appear to be at higher risk of adolescent alcohol-related blackouts independent of alcohol consumption levels and age of initiation. Alcohol-related blackouts may be associated with later alcohol use disorder.

Changes in the incidence of assault after restrictions on late-night alcohol sales in New Zealand: evaluation of a natural experiment using hospitalization and police data.

AIMS: To estimate the effect of national restrictions on late-night availability of alcohol on alcohol-related assault at a population level as indicated by (1) change in hospitalizations for weekend assaults and (2) change in the proportion of assaults documented by police that occur at night. DESIGN: Evaluation of a natural experiment, involving: (1) pre-post comparisons of age-specific incidence rates, adjusted for seasonality and background trend using Poisson regression; and (2) interrupted time-series analyses, using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models of national data with no control site. SETTING: New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: (1) Inpatients discharged from NZ hospitals following assault during the weekend (Friday-Sunday) from 2004 to 2016 (n = 14 996) and (2) cases of assault recorded by NZ Police from 2012 to 2018. INTERVENTION: introduction of national maximum trading hours for all on-licence (8 a.m.-4 a.m.) and off-licence premises (7 a.m.-11 p.m.), abolishing existing 24-hour licences, on 18 December 2013. MEASUREMENTS: (1) Age-specific incidence of hospitalization for assault on Friday, Saturday or Sunday from the national hospital discharge data set, excluding short-stay emergency department admissions and (2) proportion of weekly police-documented assaults occurring between 9 p.m. and 5.59 a.m., from NZ Police Demand and Activity data set. FINDINGS: Following the restrictions, weekend hospitalized assaults declined by 11% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.84, 0.94], with the greatest reduction among 15-29-year-olds (IRR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.76, 0.89). There was an absolute reduction (step change) of 1.8% (95% CI = 0.2, 3.5%) in the proportion of police-documented assaults occurring at night, equivalent to 9.70 (95% CI = 0.10, 19.30) fewer night-time assaults per week, out of 207.4. CONCLUSIONS: The 2013 implementation of national maximum trading hours for alcohol in NZ was followed by reductions in two complementary indicators of alcohol-related assault, consistent with beneficial effects of modest nation-wide restrictions on the late-night availability of alcohol.

Prevalence of drink-driving in Thimphu, Bhutan: Targeted surveillance at sentinel sites.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Bhutan has a high incidence of alcohol-related disease. With economic development, motorised transport is proliferating, increasing the potential for traffic injury. We investigated drink-driving in the country's largest urban environment. METHODS: Working with police, we set up checkpoints at major thoroughfares in Thimphu, on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday nights, from May to July 2017. Police directed cars to testing bays where drivers were breathalysed and interviewed. RESULTS: All 1596 drivers stopped by police were breathalysed, and 212 (13%) tested positive. Blood alcohol of >0.02 g/dL (which we defined as 'probable impairment') was detected in 178 drivers (11%), while 67 (4.2%) exceeded the legal limit of 0.08 g/dL. Probable impairment was more common in men, older drivers, on Tuesdays (versus Fridays or Saturdays) and later at night. CONCLUSION: Drink-driving is very common at night-time in Bhutan. Routine roadside random breath-testing, and media campaigns emphasising the risk of apprehension and consequent serious financial and social penalties, should be considered to deter drink-driving.